The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted a slight delay in the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala this year. According to the IMD, the monsoon is expected to arrive around June 4, with a model error of ± 4 days, highlighting a departure from the usual onset date of June 1.
The IMD statement underlined that the southwest monsoon, which marks the beginning of the rainy season in India, generally establishes itself over Kerala by June 1, with a standard deviation of approximately seven days. However, this year’s monsoon is likely to be slightly delayed, as indicated by the weather models used by the IMD.
The IMD employs six predictors to estimate the onset of the monsoon over Kerala. These predictors include minimum temperatures over Northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over the south Peninsula, outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) over the south China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over the Southeast Indian Ocean, mean sea level pressure over the Subtropical Northwest Pacific Ocean, and upper tropospheric zonal wind over the Northeast Indian Ocean.
By analyzing these indicators, the IMD predicts that various atmospheric and oceanic conditions necessary for the monsoon’s arrival may take a little longer to align this year, resulting in a slight delay. It is important to note that weather predictions, especially those involving the monsoon, can have a certain degree of uncertainty due to the complex nature of the phenomenon.
The arrival of the southwest monsoon is eagerly awaited by farmers, as it brings much-needed rainfall to support agricultural activities across the country. The monsoon’s timely onset and progression are crucial for water resources, irrigation, and overall economic stability.
While the delayed onset may raise concerns among some sectors, it is essential to remember that monsoon patterns can vary from year to year. The IMD, along with other global weather agencies, continuously monitors and refines their forecasting models to provide the most accurate predictions possible.
As the monsoon progresses, the IMD will closely monitor its movement and issue regular updates to keep the public, farmers, and various stakeholders informed. These updates will include information about rainfall patterns, regional variations, and any significant developments related to the monsoon.
Meanwhile, the Met department said that duststorms and dust-raising winds are very likely in isolated pockets over Haryana and Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan during the next three days and over Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha region during the next two days.
“Heatwave conditions in the first half of May were less severe due to Western disturbances that affected parts of northwest India. As the next western disturbance is approaching northwest India, for the next 7 days, we are not expecting heatwave conditions there. But the temperature will be higher, up to 40°C,” Kuldeep Srivastava, IMD, Delhi said.
The IMD forecast also suggests light to moderate widespread rainfall activity over northeast India during the next five days.
“Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh on 16th, 19th & 20th; over Assam & Meghalaya and Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during 16th to 20th May,” it said.
Citizens and relevant authorities are advised to stay tuned to weather forecasts and follow the guidelines provided by the IMD to make informed decisions regarding agricultural practices, water management, and other activities dependent on monsoon conditions.
While the monsoon’s arrival may be slightly delayed this year, the IMD’s expertise and ongoing monitoring efforts will ensure that timely and reliable information is available to assist individuals and organizations in adapting to the evolving weather patterns.
