Introduction
In a day marked by economic turbulence, the Indian rupee experienced a significant depreciation, closing at an all-time low of 83.14 against the US dollar. This decline of 10 paise from its previous close was attributed to a combination of factors, including the US dollar’s surge to its highest level in six months and escalating crude oil prices.
Forex traders closely observed these developments, pointing out that the strengthening of the US dollar was a primary driver behind the rupee’s depreciation. Simultaneously, the lingering impact of elevated crude oil prices further exacerbated the pressure on the Indian currency.
The day’s trading activities saw the rupee open at 83.08 against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market. Throughout the trading session, it fluctuated within a range of 83.02 to 83.18 before finally settling at the historic low of 83.14.
Notably, this recent value marked the rupee’s lowest point since August 21 of the same year when it reached 83.13. Just a day before this record low, on Tuesday, the rupee had plummeted by 33 paise, closing at 83.04 against the US dollar.
Dollar index
In contrast, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of six currencies, showed a marginal decline of 0.07 percent, settling at 104.73.
One significant contributor to the rupee’s woes was the global oil benchmark, Brent crude futures, which saw a 0.67 percent decline, dropping to USD 89.44 per barrel. This decline followed the breach of the USD 90 per barrel mark, fueled by concerns over a global economic slowdown. These concerns were exacerbated by China’s Caixin Services PMI, which fell to an 8-month low at 51.8 in August, below the forecasted 53.6.
Anuj Choudhary, a Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, commented on the situation, stating, “Brent crude breached the USD 90/barrel mark. US dollar gained on safe-haven demand amid concerns over global economic slowdown after China’s Caixin Services PMI fell to an 8-month low at 51.8 in August vs forecast of 53.6.”
He further added, “We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias on risk aversion in global markets and a strong US dollar. FII outflows and rising crude oil prices may further pressurize rupee. However, any intervention by the RBI and expectations of a no rate hike by Fed in its September FOMC may support rupee at lower levels. Traders may take cues from ISM services PMI data from the US.”
On the domestic front, the 30-share BSE Sensex closed 100.26 points or 0.15 percent higher at 65,880.52, while the broader NSE Nifty advanced 36.15 points or 0.18 percent to 19,611.05.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday, offloading shares worth Rs 1,725.11 crore, according to exchange data.
Conclusion
The Indian rupee’s struggle against the backdrop of these economic factors highlights the complex interplay between global and domestic forces impacting currency markets. As financial markets continue to react to changing conditions, both traders and policymakers will closely monitor these developments for potential implications on India’s economic landscape.
