On the eve of Turkey’s presidential runoff, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid homage to an Islamic idol, solidifying his standing among rural and poorer voters who have been instrumental in keeping him in power since 2003. Erdogan’s conversion of the historic Hagia Sophia into a mosque in 2020 has further cemented his hero status among this base of supporters. As Turks head to the polls on Sunday, the election not only determines the country’s leadership but also holds significant implications for Turkey’s governance, economy, foreign policy, and human rights.
Erdogan, who has steadily tightened his grip on Turkey’s institutions and marginalized critics and liberals, aims to extend his rule into a third decade. The human rights situation in Turkey has faced severe setbacks under Erdogan’s government, as highlighted in Human Rights Watch’s World Report 2022. Despite this, Erdogan’s promise of stability resonates with many voters, particularly in light of a deepening cost of living crisis.
The veteran campaigner gained unexpected momentum during the first round of elections, amidst economic challenges, and secured a win in the parliamentary elections through a coalition comprising his conservative Islamist-rooted AK Party (AKP), the nationalist MHP, and other groups. This outcome buoyed Erdogan, who portrays himself as a harbinger of stability in a time of uncertainty.
The main opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 74, represents a six-party alliance opposing Erdogan’s rule. As the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which was founded by Turkey’s revered founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Kilicdaroglu’s camp has struggled to regain momentum after trailing behind Erdogan in the initial round of elections.
This critical presidential runoff will decide not only the leadership of Turkey but also the trajectory of its governance, economy, and foreign policy. The country’s economic future is of particular concern, with the Turkish lira experiencing a drastic devaluation of one-tenth of its value against the dollar over the past decade.
Additionally, Turkey’s foreign policy under Erdogan has raised eyebrows in the West, as the country cultivated ties with Russia and Gulf states, creating strains in its relations with traditional allies. These geopolitical implications make the outcome of the election significant not only for Turkey but also for global politics.
The initial election revealed a larger-than-expected surge in support for nationalism, which has become a potent force in Turkish politics, fueled by years of conflict with Kurdish militants, a 2016 coup attempt, and the influx of millions of Syrian refugees since 2011. Turkey currently hosts the largest number of refugees in the world, with approximately 5 million migrants, including 3.3 million Syrians.
Notably, third-place presidential candidate Sinan Ogan, a hardline nationalist, endorsed Erdogan based on his anti-terrorism stance against pro-Kurdish groups. Another nationalist leader, Umit Ozdag of the anti-immigrant Victory Party (ZP), announced support for Kilicdaroglu after the latter promised to repatriate immigrants.
Recent surveys conducted before the endorsement announcements indicated Erdogan leading with 52.7% support, while Kilicdaroglu garnered 47.3% when undecided voters were included. However, the situation may have changed with the backing received by Kilicdaroglu from different quarters.
Turkey’s Kurdish population, accounting for approximately one-fifth of the country’s populace, will also play a crucial role in determining the election’s outcome.
As the polls open, Erdogan’s strong showing in the first round provides him with an advantage. However, Kilicdaroglu’s campaign seeks to reverse Erdogan’s policies and return Turkey .
