India is anticipated to experience a normal monsoon season this year, as forecasted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday. The IMD predicts that the country as a whole will receive approximately 96 percent of the normal monsoon rainfall, with the northwestern regions likely to experience slightly deficient rainfall at less than 92 percent of the average.
The IMD further stated that there is a reduced possibility of the monsoon arriving before June 1, and the monsoon season is projected to commence in Kerala around June 4. Favorable conditions for the advancement of the monsoon are expected over the next two days, according to the weather agency.
D Sivananda Pai, Chief of the IMD Environment Monitoring and Research Center (EMRC), stated that below-normal monthly rainfall in June is expected across most parts of the country, excluding certain areas of south peninsular India, northwest India, extreme north India, and some isolated pockets of northeast India, where above-normal rainfall is anticipated. Despite the onset of El Niño, caused by the warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the southwest monsoon is expected to be normal this season, Pai added during a press conference.
The IMD’s assessment indicates that the seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which encompasses most of the rain-fed agricultural regions in the country, is likely to be normal, ranging from 94 to 106 percent of the long-period average. The arrival of the monsoon in Kerala is expected to occur around June 4, as soon as it becomes more robustly established. However, the IMD does not expect the monsoon to arrive before June 1.
The IMD reassured that there is currently no cyclone probability in the Arabian Sea for the upcoming week. If the distribution of rainfall remains relatively consistent across the country, it will be considered an ideal situation, minimizing any potential impact on agriculture. However, below-normal rainfall is expected in northwest India at present.
A normal monsoon is crucial for India, as it directly affects the country’s agriculture, water resources, and overall economy. Adequate rainfall is essential for farmers, as it ensures healthy crop growth and contributes to food security in the nation.
The IMD’s prediction of a normal monsoon season brings some relief to farmers and policymakers, who rely heavily on accurate weather forecasts to plan agricultural activities and manage water resources. However, it is essential to closely monitor the progress of the monsoon in the coming weeks to ensure its timely arrival and distribution across the country.
In conclusion, the IMD’s announcement of an expected normal monsoon with 96 percent of the average rainfall provides hope for India’s agricultural sector and the nation’s overall well-being. As the monsoon progresses, it will be crucial to monitor its distribution to minimize any adverse effects and maximize the benefits for the country’s agricultural productivity and water reservoirs.
